I'd Like to Spank the Academy....

I don't always agree with the awards the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences hands out. (Forrest Gump over Pulp Fiction? Crash over Brokeback Mountain? The English Patient over anything?) And I don't always agree with how those awards are handed out. (Slowly, punctuated by periodic bursts of soul-searing, nuclear-strength inanity.) Yet I watch the Oscars every year.

And I bet on them every year. I lose a lot, too, because I'm a movie fan and I tend to let my personal opinions affect my judgment. (I don't care if Fargo was a long shot and The English Patient is exactly the kind of bloated, self-important, pseudo-profound claptrap the Academy used to love, THE COEN BROTHERS WERE ROBBED!!!)

But this year I'm trying to be a grownup about it. I'm setting my feelings aside and letting the oddsmakers call the shots. (It helps that I haven't seen enough of the nominated films to have strong feelings about anything.) You know what, though? I can still be beaten -- and you could be the one to do it. 

Gonna watch the Academy Awards Sunday night? Well, why don't we make it a little more interesting for all concerned? My Oscar picks are below. Post yours in the comments, and if you beat me, I'll send you one of my books. And if I beat you? You buy one.

Come on -- what have you got to lose? I mean, other than a few bucks and three (or, ugh, maybe four) hours of your life you'll never get back....

Best Picture: Argo

Best Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Best Adapted Screenplay: Chris Terrio, Argo

Best Original Screenplay: Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph 

Best Foreign Film: Amour

Best Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man

Best Original Score: Mychael Danna, Lincoln

Best Original Song: "Skyfall," Skyfall

Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi

Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina

Best Makeup: The Hobbit -- An Unexpected Journey

Best Production Design: Les Miserables 

Best Cinematography: Life of Pi

Best Costume Design: Les Miserables

Best Editing: Argo

Best Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables

Best Animated Short: "Paperman" 

Best Documentary Short: "Open Heart"

Best Live Action Short: "Curfew"

Comments

[Mysti]

I think they might stiff Spielberg in favor of Haneke or Zietlen, and I suspect Brave might take the Oscar, though my personal favorite is Pirate Band of Misfits. And Best Doc might go to Gatekeepers.

May the better guesser win!

[Amy Dobek]

I would so do this if I had actually seen the movies involved....

[Steve]

I haven't seen 75% of the nominated films myself, Amy, but I never let that keep me from forming half-baked opinions....

[Sue Trowbridge]

Well, if no one else is going to play... I agree with you on most of your picks -- not that I've devoted a lot of time to considering the chances of the more obscure awards, like Documentary Short -- but I think there's been so much controversy around "Zero Dark Thirty" that I'm going to pick "Amour" for the best original screenplay category. And as a theater fan, I'll go with the brilliant Tony Kushner's "Lincoln" for best adapted screenplay. I'll pick "Brave" over "Wreck-It Ralph" because Pixar is always a good bet, and "5 Broken Cameras" for Documentary because I've heard a lot about it lately; and "Les Miserables" for Best Make-up & Hairstyling, since Anne Hathaway looked authentically bedraggled in the clips I've seen.

For what it's worth, I've seen 4 1/2 of the Best Pic nominees. I had to run out of the theater and throw up (really!) about half an hour into "Beasts of the Southern Wild" because the hand-held shaky-cam made me nauseous. How did that guy get a nod for Best Director over Ben Affleck?!

I realized I don't have the "Dear Mr. Holmes" collection, so if you win, you'll reap literally dozens of cents from me!

[Steve]

Nice choices, Sue! Kushner/Lincoln was my first pick for Best Adapted Screenplay actually, but the award season winds seemed to be blowing in a different direction, so I went with Argo instead. And I think you might be unto something with Amour. It has fantastic buzz...though I still have no idea what the heck it's about. Well, other than love, I assume. And Brave was my first knee-jerk pick for Best Animated Feature, too. But you know what? I *loved* Wreck-It Ralph and I've heard Brave is second-tier Pixar. We'll see if that costs me in the end.

Sorry to hear about your reaction to Beasts of the Southern Wild! My parents (who can be quite adventurous with their movie watching) went to see it when they were visiting us here in Alameda, and they came away utterly perplexed (though not sickened, fortunately). Beasts is in my Netflix queue, but it's one of those movies (like The Master or anything by Lars von Trier) that I can't work up much enthusiasm about watching. I feel like there are a lot of cinematic emperors running around with no clothes these days, and I'm afraid that's made me a little more conservative in my movie choices.

But hey -- it's not like I'm watching nothing but Matlock reruns. I've managed to catch some good stuff lately.

Listen up, everybody! If you have Netflix, you've got to see the documentary The Queen of Versailles! It's a funny, sad, all-around amazing portrait of the age we live in, and it's available for instant viewing. And the movie Bernie should have gotten some Academy love (and would have if it'd had a real marketing push and had made more money). Jack Black is superb in it, and it's the best thing I've seen from Richard Linklater in what feels like decades. Check 'em out -- and tell 'em Steve sent ya!

[Brian]

Okay, Steve. I, like you, also tend to go with the love and not the logic. (This is terribly handicapping when it comes to sports betting BTW.) I accept your challenge. I also plan on throwing mental darts at the Oscar dartboard while flipping open the Oscar phone book in my mind and stabbing a random finger at a random name. You know, just like M. Emmet Walsh in 'The Jerk' (another Oscar snub!)

Best Film: Django Unchained

Best Director: Steven Spielberg

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway

Best Animated Feature: ParaNorman

Best Cinematography: Skyfall

Best Costume Design: Les Miserables

Best Documentary Feature: 5 Broken Cameras

Best Documentary Short: Mondays in Racine

Best Editing: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Foreign Language: War Witch

Best Make-up/Hair: Les Miserables

Best Music: Anaa Karenina

Best Song: Skyfall

Best Production Design: The Hobbit

Best Short Film Animated: Paperman

Best Short Film Live: Henry

Best Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables

Best Visual Effects: Prometheus

Best Writing Adapted: Life of Pi

Best Writing Original: Moonrise Kingdom

Best reason to get together with friends on a high-fashion/low expectation Sunday night: The Oscars

[Sue Trowbridge]

Steve, by my count you missed 8 categories, which is pretty darn good considering that there were a few surprises. You correctly picked "Argo" for best adapted screenplay and "Sugarman" for documentary, while my selections of "Brave" (animated film) and "Les Mis" (makeup) were on target. We were both wrong on best original screenplay. I believe that means we've tied. Brian, however, missed 14 and definitely needs to buy a book now. :)

I was pleasantly surprised that "Life of Pi" did so well -- however, I think the people who wind up watching it on DVD or streaming will really miss out on the experience. It was a true theatrical spectacle. As for Seth MacFarlane -- like David Letterman, I think he's one and done.

[Steve]

Well played, Sue! My tally came up the same: Like Zero Dark Thirty and Skyfall's sound editing departments, we tied. (That was the biggest surprise of the night for me. I don't *ever* remember seeing a tie for an Oscar. The second biggest surprise: Daniel Day-Lewis being funnier than the host.)

I wasn't planning on seeing Life of Pi -- there was something about the wall-to-wall CGI in the trailers that turned me off -- but I'll have to catch it now. Even if I don't care for it, I won't begrudge Ang Lee his Oscar. I'll just think of it as the one Brokeback Mountain should have won for Best Picture.

And I neither loved nor hated MacFarlane, but I suspect you're right about his chances of returning next year. Who do they turn to now? Zombie Johnny Carson?

[jaq nigg]

Dang! I wish I would have seen your post before the Oscars. That'll teach me to keep up with my RSS feed. My Oscar competitiveness does not include filling out a ballet, which is strange, right?

Instead, I get super crazy into watching Oscar films. I want to see more than everyone else. This year, I saw 44 of the 53 nominated - and even read all of the nominated adaptation books. You're right that the more information you have, the more emotion enters in to winner selections.

I go to a party each year where we're supposed to bring a dish that relates to one of the movies. One can bring food that was eaten in a movie (say, crabby snacks for Silver Linings Playbook) or even something less specific (Indian food for Life of Pi), but this is the one place in the world where puns are king. One of my favorite movies this year was Moonrise Kingdom so I made Moonrise Dingdong and Moonpies Kingdom. I couldn't pick one over the other. Life of Pie would have been too obvious. The best year was when Josh made The Passion of the Crisp.

Oops. I'm babbling and I didn't even participate in your challenge. Next year, count me in!

[Steve]

Sorry you missed out on the contest, Jaq! It was totally spur of the moment. (I didn't decide to post my picks until late Friday afternoon, so I'm almost surprised anyone noticed at all before the ceremony came and went.) How do you think you would've done?

Yowza! I'm not just impressed that you saw 44 nominated films. I'm impressed that you saw 44 new films of any kind last year! Between outings to the theater (I think I managed five) and Netflix, I probably caught...wow, I don't know. Maybe a dozen new movies? (I tend to watch a lot of old stuff in small, late-night chunks. Like, I'm finally getting around to the documentary Sherman's March -- from 19 freakin' 86! -- and it's going to take me four sittings to get through.)

Anyway -- you might have missed out on the picks, but you kicked my ass when it comes to movies watched!

[Mysti]

My worst year ever with only 10 guesses right. sigh. You rock, Mr. H!

[Steve]

I'm sure I've had 10-point years, too, Mysti. And I still managed to lose this year to an old friend who sent his picks via e-mail. Hi ho. There's always next year.

I wonder who the host will be...?